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Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences
Center of Actuarial Excellence (CAE)
Convocation June 2014
Convocation June 2014

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  • PhD Public Lecture (Monday, May 11, 2015)
    Time: 12:00pm-1:00pm and Room: WSC 248
    Speaker: Mir (Hashem) Moosavi Avonleghi
    Title: Quantitative Techniques for Spread Trading in Commodity Markets

    This thesis investigates quantitative techniques for trading strategies on two commodities, the difference of whose prices exhibits a long-term historical relationship known as mean-reversion. A portfolio of two commodity prices with very similar characteristics, the spread may be regarded as a distinct process from the underlying price processes so deserves to be modeled directly. To pave the way for modeling the spread processes, the fundamental concepts, notions, properties of commodity markets such as the forward prices, the futures prices, and convenience yields are described. Some popular commodity

    This thesis investigates quantitative techniques for trading strategies on two commodities, the difference of whose prices exhibits a long-term historical relationship known as mean-reversion. A portfolio of two commodity prices with very similar characteristics, the spread may be regarded as a distinct process from the underlying price processes so deserves to be modeled directly. To pave the way for modeling the spread processes, the fundamental concepts, notions, properties of commodity markets such as the forward prices, the futures prices, and convenience yields are described. Some popular commodity pricing models including both one and two factor models are reviewed. A new mean-reverting process to model the commodity spot prices is introduced. Some analytical results for this process are derived and its properties analyze. We compare the new one-factor model with a common existing one-factor model by applying these two models to price West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, and discuss its advantages and disadvantages. We investigate the recent behavioral change in the location spread process between WTI crude oil and Brent oil.

    The ...

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