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Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences
Center of Actuarial Excellence (CAE)
Convocation June 2014
Convocation June 2014

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  • PhD Public Lecture - Erin Lundy (Wednesday, July 06, 2016)
    Time: 1:00pm-1:40pm and Room: WSC 248
    Speaker: Erin Lundy
    Title: Joint Analysis of Zero-heavy Longitudinal Outcomes: Models and Comparison of Study Designs

    Understanding the patterns and mechanisms of the process of desistance from criminal activity is imperative for the development of effective sanctions and legal policy. Methodological challenges in the analysis of longitudinal criminal behaviour data include the need to develop methods for multivariate longitudinal discrete data, incorporating modulating exposure variables and several possible sources of zero-inflation. We develop new tools for zero-heavy joint outcome analysis which address these challenges and provide novel insights on processes related to offending patterns. Comparisons with existing approaches demonstrate the benefits of utilizing modeling frameworks which incorporate distinct sources of zeros. An additional concern in this context is heaping of self-reported counts where recorded counts are rounded to different levels of precision. Alternatively, more accurate data that is less burdensome on participants to record may be obtained by collecting information on presence/absence of events at periodic assessments. We compare these two study designs in the context of self-reported data related to criminal behaviour and provide insights on choice of design when heaping is expected.

    The contributions of this research work include the following: (i) Developing a general framework for joint modeling of multiple longitudinal zero-inflated count outcomes which incorporates a variety of probabilistic structures on the zero counts. (ii) Accommodating a subgroup of subjects who are not at-risk to engage in a particular outcome (iii) Incorporating the effect of a time-dependent exposure variable in settings where some outcomes are prohibited during exposure to a treatment. (iv) Illustrating the extent to which heaping of zero-inflated counts, ari ...

  • MSc Day (Thursday, July 28, 2016)

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